San Diego Home Affordability Index Improved

When someone says to me, "that house just isn't worth what they are asking for" and the house is well below the comparable home prices, my first question is, where are you from originally? Not meaning this in a bad way, but when I hear that comment I know they are from a different part of the United States.

Yes home prices in San Diego County seem outrageous to people relocating from Michigan, Florida, and even from people as close as El Centro, where the home prices are up to a 1/4th of the price. However, I quickly remind them that the prices in San Francisco and New York are a lot more and it rains twice as much." I also remind them that they are paying for the weather here in Sunny Southern California.

According to the Union Tribune San Diego's housing affordability has actually improved in the third quarter. Data showed that 51.5% percent of households making a median income of $75,500 can now afford to buy a $325,000 median priced home. The affordability index has improved since May, when San Diego ranked 11th with only 46.6% able to buy.

Looking at the history of the National Association of Home Builders Housing Opportunity index in San Diego, we have come a long way from the fourth quarter in 2005, when San Diego ranked 7th with only 3.6% able to afford the $500,000 medium priced home and to the other extreme last year when San Diego ranked 25th with home prices at $270,000.

While San Diego County is now ranked the 12th least affordable market in the United States, we are still considerably more affordable than New York, who ranked the least affordable with only 22.6% able to buy a $435,000 median priced home, and San Francisco ranking second with only 28% able to afford the $600,000 median priced home.

With California having 7 of the top 10 least affordable cities, you are probably wondering where is the most affordable housing. Drum roll please.....Kokomo, Indiana was the most affordable with 96.1% able to afford the median price home $83,000 with a median household income of $61,400. However, remember while San Diego has an average rainfall of 7" compared to Kokomo with an average 40" and not to mention the average snow fall of around 22".

With low interest rates and the risk of prices falling behind us, economist, David Crowe, fears that San Diego may grow less affordable in the future; however, he also sees rising prices ironically representing a sign of a better housing market to come.

--Virginia Hall
ABR, CRS, e-Pro, GRI, SFR
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
VirginiaHall.com
Direct (619)258-8585

The San Diego Appraisal Nightmare

The buzz among Realtors today is the appraisals are coming in low, gumming up the sale of homes. While the inventory of homes decreases in San Diego County, the law of supply and demand pushes prices upwards. However, how far above the last comparable home sale can they go?

Sellers can ask a ten-million dollars for their home, but will the comparable home prices in the area support the price? This is a fair and honest question that Sellers need to seriously consider when choosing a price to list their home at.

The pendulum seems to have swung the opposite direction. A few years ago, appraisers chosen by lenders, seemed to search for properties that supported the rising prices. When prices began to turn, declining, and people began to walk away from homes that were no longer worth what they payed for them, the appraisers were often blamed for over-inflating the home prices. Some were even held accountable for their inaccurate appraisals.

Now appraisers are faced with a several challenges and producing conservative prices that are seeming to error on the low side, rather than risk over-valuing a home. Some believe that due to new regulations, appraisers are now chosen from a pool rather than the individual lenders in hopes of a more impartial appraisal, has led to appraisers sometimes working out of unfamiliar territories. They may not know be familiar with the local area and only have the multiple listing information about properties versus first hand knowledge. The second issue they face is there is still a supply of lower priced foreclosures and short sale homes that may be the only comparable homes available.

So what is a seller to do when their home appraisal comes in under the offer price? You can appeal the appraisal, which involves reviewing it to find factual errors, detailing why the comparable homes were not good comparisons, and coming up with better comparable homes. Or there is always back to the drawing board and renegotiate the price.

As the number of offers multiplies on well maintained or even average homes with good bones, sellers will be looking for the buyers prepared to bring in extra cash to pull the appraisal and offer price together should it come in low. So buyers need to be prepared with extra cash to back up their offers.

--Virginia Hall
ABR,CRS, E-pro, GRI
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage
(619)258-8585

Bad News Good News--Santee Housing Market

The bad news always seems to be first, when the media talks about the housing market. While bad news may sell more, a lot depends on how you are looking at it--half full or half empty.

The statistics for April emerged yesterday. While the job layoffs and economy is definitely slowing the housing market return, some areas of San Diego are still sputtering along showing signs of revival. From January until April home prices have slowly climbed in the East County.

While year over year home values have shown a 26.5% decline from April 2008 to April 2009; although, since January the medium home prices in the East County have actually increased 4% from $240,000 in January 2009 to $250,000 in April 2009. Other signs of recover include the number of home sales increased 51% year over year from 323 in April 2008 to 488 in April 2009.

Like several areas of San Diego, Santee home prices have also risen since January the medium home prices have risen from $270,000 to $285,000 in April, over 5% increase. However, again looking at it year over year, from April 2008 to April 2009, it has declined 20.2%. The number of homes in Santee remained steady, from 58 in April 2008 to 59 in April 2009.

As I mentioned in What Happened to All the Houses on the MLS?, with the declining inventory we should continue to see the housing prices slowly recover. If you have been waiting for the bottom to hit, we may have already seen it. So with the interest rates low and all of the buyer incentives mentioned in Uncle Sam Giving Money Away to First-Time Homebuyers and Buy Today with Recession Proof Plans now is the opportune time to buy.

--Virginia Hall


As I mentioned in What Happened to All the Houses on the MLS?, with the declining inventory we should continue to see the housing prices slowly recover. If you have been waiting for the bottom to hit, we may have already seen it. So with the interest rates low and all of the buyer incentives mentioned in Uncle Sam Giving Money Away to First-Time Homebuyers and Buy Today with Recession Proof Plans now is the opportune time to buy.

--Virginia Hall

What Happened to All the Houses on the MLS?

Frustrated agents and buyers cheer the new change at Sandicor, the San Diego County area multiple listing service (MLS). As a result of a change that occurred on 5/20/09 , about a third to one-half of the homes that were listed as "Active" moved to a new category titled "Contingent" overnight. This will eliminate the frustration of many buyers who find the perfect home only to find out it has multiple offers on it.

Before Wednesday, these homes showed actively listed, while indeed they were not available for offers. However, listing agents were unable to move them to "Pending" until the bank officially approved the offers. Agents seemed to be at odds with each other due to the added work to find truly available properties.

The reduction in the number of available homes will certainly seal the changing tide of the Housing Market, that many agents and buyers have been feeling already. The inventory of homes for sale has gone from about 3 1/2 months in San Diego County to about 2 months. While it is uncertain because of the economy, the law of supply and demand should cause the 2009 Housing Prices to slowly climb.

Although interests rates are still low and first time home buyers have lots of great incentives to take advantage of, including the items in the Economic Stimulus Package that can be found in my blogs Grab That Golden Housing Ring! and the Mortgage Protection Program outlined in
Buy Today with Recession Proof Plans.

--Virginia Hall

2009 Brings New Hope!

While no one can predict the future, as President Obama sets up new legislation to turn around the economy, there is a new attitude emerging. One of hope.

Many attribute the recession to cycles and some see it as a self fulfilling prophecy. A year ago when the experts predicted a bad year, we all tightened our belts and trimmed the fat from our budgets. When you multiply this by the millions, you naturally have a recession.

But now a different climate is developing. Many see the Bailout money coming. We are ready to recover. “The economy, including the real estate market, may have finally arrived at, or is just before or just past the bottom,” according to Gary London in the San Diego Business Journal.

The recession has brought hope to many renters. The Housing prices have now rolled back to an affordable level, where renting costs as much as to own.

While First Time Home Buyers must have more money to put down than two years ago, there are still great benefits to buying a home. You have to have a place to live and in the long run, home prices continue to climb. Even with the recession, home prices are still triple what they were twenty years ago. Why pay someone else’s mortgage? The average home owner saves approximately $8000 a year in taxes. Not to mention the $7500 tax First-Time Home Buyer Credit incentive if you buy before July1st 2009. See http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/ for more detail.

When I look back at when I was in my mid-twenties, at that time you couldn’t buy a house without having 20 percent down and the interest rates were in the teens. Unlike today when you can get into a home with as little as 3% down and the interest rates still continue to be in the 5 and 6’s.

While price reductions may continue during 2009, until the majority of foreclosures and short sales have been bought up, I agree with London “While it is very unlikely to be a banner year, 2009 will be a new beginning." Looking forward to a Better New Year.

--Virginia Hall